For one thing, trades are too unpredictable. After the dust settles, the order of the first round will probably be a lot different than it is today. One trade in the Top 5 and everything is thrown off.
Another factor is subjective valuations of players. Some front offices will have taken prospects off of their boards for one reason or another. Other organizations will value players more than most. It's a complicated process of scouting, comparison, need and fit.
All that considered, if you hit 4 or 5 picks in your mock draft - you're basically a wizard.
The NFL is looking at moving the draft up earlier in the year, which could help with the onset of mock draft fatigue. Still though, they can be fun. With the 2019 NFL Draft beginning tonight, let's get into my guess as to how the first round will look.
The NFL is looking at moving the draft up earlier in the year, which could help with the onset of mock draft fatigue. Still though, they can be fun. With the 2019 NFL Draft beginning tonight, let's get into my guess as to how the first round will look.
1. AZ Cardinals - Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Nobody seems sure. Murray seems like a logical player to take here, explosive enough that he is probably worthy of being taken first overall and a kind of player that will fit into Kliff Kingsbury's air-raid offense. The questions revolve around smoke-screens and last years' first round choice, Josh Rosen. Can the Cards offload Rosen for a 1st or 2nd rounder?
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| Kyler Murray looks to go #1 overall. (Photo: University of Oklahoma) |
If Murray goes #1, Bosa will likely go #2. This class is full of pass rushers and Bosa is thought of as one of the best. Doesn't hurt that his brother has already had a good impact in the league, either. The 49ers traded for Dee Ford and take Bosa to pair with him, turning one of their biggest weaknesses into a strength.
3. NY Jets - Josh Allen, Edge, Kentucky
Allen had a great season at Kentucky and looked like a beast at the Combine. The Jets are in the process of retooling their defense under Adam Gase, and Allen is a nice piece. Rumor is this pick is in play for a trade - but I'm not going to bother trying to predict any of those.
4. Oakland Raiders - Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
A little unfortunate that neither of the edge rushers are there, not that the Raiders will be complaining if Williams is available. Williams anchored Alabama's defensive line, has an endless motor, and is thought to be one of the best players in the draft. Mayock and Jon Gruden dismissed their scouts last week to try and stop leaks to the media. Some rumors have the Raiders taking a "big surprise" at #4 - like Ed Oliver, Devin White or even one of the QBs.
5. TB Buccaneers - Ed Oliver, DL, Houston
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| Where will Ed Oliver land? (AP Photo: Brandon Wade) |
6. NY Giants - Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
Dave Gettleman has heard the cries of " new quarterback!" There might not be one worthy of this pick. The talk of Haskins to the Giants has somewhat cooled, and I think the Giants are the most likely landing spot for Josh Rosen anyway. Gary is a high-upside player and a bit of a gamble, as his production in college isn't what many thought it should be. He's still developing as a pass rusher, but the speed and the motor are there.
7. JAX Jaguars - Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
Maybe the most straight-forward pick in the entire draft. Therefore, it probably won't happen. Jaguars invested heavily in Nick Foles to fix their problems at QB. Spending a high draft pick to protect that investment makes sense to me. Taylor plugs in at RT and upgrades the line immediately.
8. DET Lions - TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Hockenson has been rising up draft boards all offseason. Scouts love his game - his ability to run routes and create space is something to behold, and the guy dropped something like 2 passes in 4 seasons. Maybe a bit too high for a TE, but Hockenson should be play in the NFL for a long time.
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| Iowa TE Hockenson (Photo: Matthew Holst, Getty Images) |
9. BUF Bills - Montez Sweat, Edge, Mississippi St
Sweat may end up going higher than this, but a heart condition found at the Combine could also scare teams off. The Bills only have one other edge rusher, Jerry Hughes, who enters a contract year in 2019. Sweat is a speed rusher - he recorded a 4.41 40 yard dash this offseason and looked great at the Combine.
10. DEN Broncos - Devin White, LB, LSU
He is the top LB prospect in the draft, and this pick will probably please defensive guru and new head coach Vic Fangio. Reasonable to think Elway might be tempted by Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock. Difficult to imagine just one QB going in the top 10.
11. CIN Bengals - Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio St.
New Head Coach Zac Taylor gets his franchise quarterback. Andy Dalton is decent, but is 0-4 in the playoffs. Haskins is strong and has experience in big games. I'm not sure he will fall this far. But if he does, I can't see him making it by the Bengals.
12. GB Packers - Brian Burns, Edge, Florida St.
New Head Coach Zac Taylor gets his franchise quarterback. Andy Dalton is decent, but is 0-4 in the playoffs. Haskins is strong and has experience in big games. I'm not sure he will fall this far. But if he does, I can't see him making it by the Bengals.
12. GB Packers - Brian Burns, Edge, Florida St.
I don't think any of the receivers in the draft are worth this pick. Noah Fant or Devin Bush could be possibilities, but I have the Packers taking an edge rusher here. Burns has a long frame and great bend to get around offensive lineman.
13. MIA Dolphins - Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
The Dolphins desperately need a QB and they're fortunate to have Lock fall to them here. He can sit for a year and learn behind Fitzpatrick. Lock has good size and a cannon for an arm. The Dolphins aren't seriously expected compete this season so this is a long-term investment.
14. ATL Falcons - Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
The Falcons had a pretty poor run defense last season, so getting a guy with a history of production like Wilkins makes sense. Wilkins slides into the Atlanta's starting lineup instantly. He's the first of 3 Clemson defensive lineman that could be drafted in the first round.
15. WAS - Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
There is a lot of speculation that Washington could look to trade up for one of the quarterbacks. Hard to predict how the QB carousel will play out on draft day, especially considering that some teams could also be interested in Josh Rosen. As a prospect, Jones divides opinion. Those type of guys usually end up going in the first round anyway.
16. CAR Panthers - Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
Carolina's biggest need is help along the offensive line. Ford can play as either a tackle or a guard. This pick might be Jonah Williams instead, but I expect Carolina will address their line sooner rather than later in any case.
17. NY Giants - Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
The Giants have needs on both lines, as well as at quarterback. With so many variables, it is difficult to know how their draft might go. Could this pick be part of a trade up to draft another QB or for Rosen? In this scenario, we'll say they acquire Rosen and take Rashan Gary and Jonah Williams in the first round.
18. MIN Vikings - Clelin Ferrell, Edge, Clemson
The Vikings biggest need is along the OL, but I think the run will take place before they pick. This is a good fit for Ferrell, whose value has been spiking or sinking depending on the day. They have a lot of prospects at the position but this will be the last year before Everson Griffen hits the market. Makes sense to bring in his replacement now.
19. TEN Titans - DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
The wide receiver situation in this draft is murky, that is to say - none really stand out as the true #1 in the class. Most people will have heard about Metcalf's 4.33 40 at the Combine, and the hype has really been building for him as we near Draft Day. The Titans already have Corey Davis, but they pair him with a speedy receiver here to try and relieve the pressure.
20. PIT Steelers - Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
People love Byron Murphy's tape. It's hard not to. The guy leaves it all out there on the field. Greedy Williams is more athletic, but Murphy is the better tackler and plays with tenacity. The Steelers need to address the need in the secondary, as Artie Burns was benched this season.
21. SEA Seahawks - Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi St
The Seahawks got what they wanted for Frank Clark - a first round pick in return. Now without any stars on their defensive line, they go with Simmons here. Simmons is more of a long term investment as his recent injury may cost him some time in his first season. The Seahawks may also opt to trade down with this pick now that they have another one in the first.
22. BAL Ravens - Hollywood Brown, WR, Oklahoma
There are a number of directions that they could have gone, like addressing the interior offensive line or a pass rusher. Hollywood is an exciting pick and a possible home run hitter. I see him as a Tyreek Hill-type of player, but he needs to prove that he can produce at the next level.
23. HOU Texans - Andre Dillard, OT, Washington St.
Deshaun Watson was sacked way too much last season. Dillard is considered to be one of the best pass protectors in the draft. Seems like a great fit - but the Texans may have to move up to get him if the run on offensive lineman goes down like many predict.
24. OAK Raiders - Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
The Raiders took another Williams at #4 in this mock. With three first round picks as it stands, the Raiders would do well to get at least two defensive starters. Greedy has fallen down draft boards lately, but is a long and athletic corner with good coverage skills. He isn't a very good tackler, but that matters less in today's NFL.
25. PHI Eagles - Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
I think this pick will be for the interior defensive line, so either one of Clemson defensive tackles makes sense here. I also think that Devin Bush is a possibility if he falls this far. The Eagles miss out on the top OL prospects but Lawrence is a big time run stopper that fills an immediate need.
26. IND Colts - Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
Tillery is an excellent pass rusher. He's strong and has a great bull rush to bowl over offensive lineman. There will be a number of defensive tackles selected in this first round and nobody is quite what order they will come off of the board. I believe the Colts will come away with one of them.
27. OAK Raiders - Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Jared Cook was one of Derek Carr's favorite targets last season, but he signed with New Orleans in free agency. The Raiders now have a big hole at TE unless you think the plan is for Luke Wilson to start. With 3 first round picks, it is unfortunate that they don't get an EDGE rusher with one of them but it just doesn't pan out that way in this draft.
28. LA Chargers - Dalton Risner, OL, Kansas St.
This pick fills a need for the Chargers - they will be looking for an upgrade along the OL. It is perhaps a bit high for Risner, though. Deandre Baker or another corner could be in play in this pick. And who knows? The Chargers have been linked to a trade for Rosen as well. This might be the pick they use if so.
29. SEA Seahawks - N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona St.
Trading Clark allows the Seahawks the flexibility that they need to sign Bobby Wagner to a long term deal. Doug Baldwin has had three offseason surgeries this year, and Harry is a big, physical receiver.
30. GB Packers - Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
The Packers are fortunate that Bush falls this far. With no great OL prospects left and no offensive pass catchers worthy of the pick, the Packers do the easy thing and take the best player available.
31. LA Rams - Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina
The Rams need to improve on their interior line and Bradbury gives them options at left guard and center. They need to replace Suh on the defensive line, but with the "big time" defensive tackles gone already, they go with a solid choice in Bradbury here.
32. NE Patriots - Nasir Adderley, DB, Delaware
You never quite know what the Hoodie is thinking on Draft Day. I have the Patriots taking Nasir Adderley here. Adderley is the draft's best small-school prospect and really impressed at the Senior Bowl. He mostly played as a safety in college, but could play at corner in the pros. I imagine the Patriots will find somewhere for him to excel.
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So there you have it. I hope you enjoyed this mock and are looking forward to the real thing tonight. If you disagree with a pick, feel free to let me know in the comments. The draft is wildly unpredictable and I have no notions that my picks are locked in. But for those of us who love football, there isn't much else to talk about this time of year.
Just Missed:
Georgia CB Deandre Baker
Boston OL Chris Lindstrom
Mississippi WR AJ Brown
Alabama RB Josh Jacobs
Michigan Edge Chase Winovich
The Dolphins desperately need a QB and they're fortunate to have Lock fall to them here. He can sit for a year and learn behind Fitzpatrick. Lock has good size and a cannon for an arm. The Dolphins aren't seriously expected compete this season so this is a long-term investment.
14. ATL Falcons - Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
The Falcons had a pretty poor run defense last season, so getting a guy with a history of production like Wilkins makes sense. Wilkins slides into the Atlanta's starting lineup instantly. He's the first of 3 Clemson defensive lineman that could be drafted in the first round.
15. WAS - Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
There is a lot of speculation that Washington could look to trade up for one of the quarterbacks. Hard to predict how the QB carousel will play out on draft day, especially considering that some teams could also be interested in Josh Rosen. As a prospect, Jones divides opinion. Those type of guys usually end up going in the first round anyway.
16. CAR Panthers - Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
Carolina's biggest need is help along the offensive line. Ford can play as either a tackle or a guard. This pick might be Jonah Williams instead, but I expect Carolina will address their line sooner rather than later in any case.
17. NY Giants - Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
The Giants have needs on both lines, as well as at quarterback. With so many variables, it is difficult to know how their draft might go. Could this pick be part of a trade up to draft another QB or for Rosen? In this scenario, we'll say they acquire Rosen and take Rashan Gary and Jonah Williams in the first round.
18. MIN Vikings - Clelin Ferrell, Edge, Clemson
The Vikings biggest need is along the OL, but I think the run will take place before they pick. This is a good fit for Ferrell, whose value has been spiking or sinking depending on the day. They have a lot of prospects at the position but this will be the last year before Everson Griffen hits the market. Makes sense to bring in his replacement now.
19. TEN Titans - DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
The wide receiver situation in this draft is murky, that is to say - none really stand out as the true #1 in the class. Most people will have heard about Metcalf's 4.33 40 at the Combine, and the hype has really been building for him as we near Draft Day. The Titans already have Corey Davis, but they pair him with a speedy receiver here to try and relieve the pressure.
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| DK Metcalf could be the first receiver taken. (Photo: Michael Conroy, Getty Images) |
20. PIT Steelers - Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
People love Byron Murphy's tape. It's hard not to. The guy leaves it all out there on the field. Greedy Williams is more athletic, but Murphy is the better tackler and plays with tenacity. The Steelers need to address the need in the secondary, as Artie Burns was benched this season.
21. SEA Seahawks - Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi St
The Seahawks got what they wanted for Frank Clark - a first round pick in return. Now without any stars on their defensive line, they go with Simmons here. Simmons is more of a long term investment as his recent injury may cost him some time in his first season. The Seahawks may also opt to trade down with this pick now that they have another one in the first.
22. BAL Ravens - Hollywood Brown, WR, Oklahoma
There are a number of directions that they could have gone, like addressing the interior offensive line or a pass rusher. Hollywood is an exciting pick and a possible home run hitter. I see him as a Tyreek Hill-type of player, but he needs to prove that he can produce at the next level.
23. HOU Texans - Andre Dillard, OT, Washington St.
Deshaun Watson was sacked way too much last season. Dillard is considered to be one of the best pass protectors in the draft. Seems like a great fit - but the Texans may have to move up to get him if the run on offensive lineman goes down like many predict.
The Raiders took another Williams at #4 in this mock. With three first round picks as it stands, the Raiders would do well to get at least two defensive starters. Greedy has fallen down draft boards lately, but is a long and athletic corner with good coverage skills. He isn't a very good tackler, but that matters less in today's NFL.
25. PHI Eagles - Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
I think this pick will be for the interior defensive line, so either one of Clemson defensive tackles makes sense here. I also think that Devin Bush is a possibility if he falls this far. The Eagles miss out on the top OL prospects but Lawrence is a big time run stopper that fills an immediate need.
26. IND Colts - Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
Tillery is an excellent pass rusher. He's strong and has a great bull rush to bowl over offensive lineman. There will be a number of defensive tackles selected in this first round and nobody is quite what order they will come off of the board. I believe the Colts will come away with one of them.
27. OAK Raiders - Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Jared Cook was one of Derek Carr's favorite targets last season, but he signed with New Orleans in free agency. The Raiders now have a big hole at TE unless you think the plan is for Luke Wilson to start. With 3 first round picks, it is unfortunate that they don't get an EDGE rusher with one of them but it just doesn't pan out that way in this draft.
28. LA Chargers - Dalton Risner, OL, Kansas St.
This pick fills a need for the Chargers - they will be looking for an upgrade along the OL. It is perhaps a bit high for Risner, though. Deandre Baker or another corner could be in play in this pick. And who knows? The Chargers have been linked to a trade for Rosen as well. This might be the pick they use if so.
29. SEA Seahawks - N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona St.
Trading Clark allows the Seahawks the flexibility that they need to sign Bobby Wagner to a long term deal. Doug Baldwin has had three offseason surgeries this year, and Harry is a big, physical receiver.
30. GB Packers - Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
The Packers are fortunate that Bush falls this far. With no great OL prospects left and no offensive pass catchers worthy of the pick, the Packers do the easy thing and take the best player available.
31. LA Rams - Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina
The Rams need to improve on their interior line and Bradbury gives them options at left guard and center. They need to replace Suh on the defensive line, but with the "big time" defensive tackles gone already, they go with a solid choice in Bradbury here.
32. NE Patriots - Nasir Adderley, DB, Delaware
You never quite know what the Hoodie is thinking on Draft Day. I have the Patriots taking Nasir Adderley here. Adderley is the draft's best small-school prospect and really impressed at the Senior Bowl. He mostly played as a safety in college, but could play at corner in the pros. I imagine the Patriots will find somewhere for him to excel.
_____
So there you have it. I hope you enjoyed this mock and are looking forward to the real thing tonight. If you disagree with a pick, feel free to let me know in the comments. The draft is wildly unpredictable and I have no notions that my picks are locked in. But for those of us who love football, there isn't much else to talk about this time of year.
Just Missed:
Georgia CB Deandre Baker
Boston OL Chris Lindstrom
Mississippi WR AJ Brown
Alabama RB Josh Jacobs
Michigan Edge Chase Winovich
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